The GERD dam and Sudan's about face

If someone was to tell me a while back that Ethiopia was going to build a dam on the river Nile, and the one riparian country other than Egypt opposing the dam would be the Congo Republic and the one country fervently supporting the project would be the Republic of Sudan, I would have a hard time believing that someone. Although the position of the Republic of Congo was unexpected for me, I could see how their stance could be influenced by the Egyptians with some "goodies" here and there. But the reaction of the Sudanese to the contrary regarding the dam was just as unexpected for me, if not worse. And anybody with the slightest understanding of the cultural and historical dynamics between the three countries (Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt) would feel the same way too. Especially regarding the Nile River. Let's not forget that these are the two countries that flushed Ethiopia down the proverbial "toilet" when it came to the Nile treaties of the past.
And although Sudan didn't stand to gain that much from those treaties, it still got more than what Ethiopia got in the deal which was nothing. And as a downstream country just like Egypt, it would have made more sense for the Sudanese to stick to their old alliance. And up until the moment the dam became big news and bluffs started flying on all sides, Sudan towed that line, one that made sense the most for them. But just after the big fanfare settled down, and people started talking, Sudan did a 180 and said it was throwing all its support behind the construction of the GERD dam. The news was just as delightful as it was perplexing.
Look I am just as happy as the next guy that the Sudanese are supporting the GERD dam but why the sudden about-face? One might take their claim at face value and say that they actually thought they will benefit more if the dam was built than if it was not. Or that they did all this out of good virtue. But that is just too easy and predictable.
There was a recent WikiLeaks documents showing the Sudanese agreeing to allow the Egyptians build an airbase. Let me be naive and assume the base is to be used as a launch pad to attack, I don't know but may be, Chad or Niger? Of course not! It is not far-fetched to assume that Sudan did all these things to negotiate from a position of strength in any potential one-on-one engagements with Egypt in the future or with Ethiopia for that matter. Using their support for the dam a leverage against Egypt and a potential Egyptian airbase in Ethiopia's doorsteps as a potential leverage against the latter.

Here is why advocating for sanctions on Ethiopia is wrong !

These days it seems like that every time there is a grievance with some members of the Ethiopian diaspora, everybody starts calling for sanctions, withholding aid money, and the like. First of all, forget the fact that most of these people will not be affected personally if such measures were actually put in place. Secondly, a member of the diaspora can help alleviate a country's problems. But a country’s core problems have rarely been solved by people who live thousands of miles away from the center of the debate. So if anybody living abroad thinks the fate of this country in any way or form depends on them, they are fooling themselves and ,hence, are on a goose chase. They should get rid of that "saviour mentality" and help contribute to the good of the country. May be you can help me but there is some Winston Chruchill quote that seems to hit the nail on this issue but I can't seem to remember it.
There won't be any 'Libya-style' campaign against Ethiopia; no fancy air strikes or anything. So I think the wisest thing would be drop the silly act and find ways to contribute positively to the society. The people here, especially the young ones, are pragmatic about the conditions in Ethiopia. They don't try to go against the wall or do things in the hopes of scoring an interview with some major international news outlets. I think a sizable portion of the diaspora opposition has a "savior complex" and that if they looked pitiful and sad enough for foreigners, may be they will lend them a helping hand in whatever they are doing. Well that is not the mentality great nations are made of. This topic is a typical case of fight-or-flight response scenario. Either stand strong in your homeland and the face the music, or fly to some foreign land and do everything in your power to sabotage the country. I think the choice is obivious.

First Account on #AddisTaxiStrike and My Take on It

I was a victim of the recent #AddisTaxiStrike last Monday. I tried to use the light Railway system but that was overloaded with non-regular customers like me. And if it wasn’t for some generous lift from an acquaintance, my work day would have been ruined. I sympathize with the drivers whose livelihood is being put in jeopardy, not because of the proposed traffic law but because of some predatory traffic police officers who cut them a ticket whenever they feel like it. I have come across some of these traffic police officers on more than one occasion. And under these circumstances, the traffic law doesn’t necessarily play in their favor.

Personally, I don’t have anything against the law. If my memory serves me right, along with countless statistics, Ethiopia has one of the highest traffic casualties in the world. And I have lost my fair share of close relatives to traffic accidents. So anything being done to curb this epidemic is fine by me. In a city where cutting corners and “Hustling” is becoming or has already become the new normal, anything being done to return a sense of normalcy and civility to the society is okay with me. The government, in turn, should focus on cleaning those corrupt officers from the traffic force.

Another thing I witnessed during the strike was that everybody was trying to turn it into something else. “Opportunist Syndrome” was in full display by some ‘tweeps’. The strike had nothing political in its nature but there they were drooling over it like they really cared. Check out the #AddisTaxiStrike hashtag on twitter and you will know what I am talking about. The response from people, especially on twitter, was to try tie this to something political or whatever; trying to tie every grievance the society has with their personal or group narrative. One thing that separates the taxi drivers from those self-righteous tweeps is that the drivers didn’t go on strike to score an interview with some major news channel; they did it out of fear for their daily livelihood.

Personal Opinion Regarding #OromoProtests

At the risk of sounding condescending, I am going to say this. All things considered, the Oromos have been nothing but welcoming to people of all colors and stripes from all over Ethiopia.  So whenever I hear someone complaining about the recent protests across Oromia over the implementation of the Addis Ababa Master Plan, I almost cringe with embarrassment. Nobody should mistake the recent protests across Oromia as a manifestation of intolerance and racism. It might appear so at first given the guy orchestrating this whole affair is Jawar Mohammed who frankly doesn't strike a friendly tone with many people I come across.

This kind of approach sounds awfully familiar; a diaspora activist manipulating his “foot soldiers” from abroad behind the safety of his laptop, studio or whatever. I have seen him fanning this whole affair day after day on social media, yet I haven’t seen him or any of his delegates on the ground walking the talk with the crowd. The reason I think he is not doing that is because deep down he knows that will get him in trouble and endanger his safety; unlike the unlucky souls on the ground across Oromia. This, for me, is the personification of cowardice. And I think he is not alone in this respect. He is just one of a group of opposition groups based abroad who are just looking for any opportunity or opening to just slip in and have their way; probably erase any good that came out of the regime before them on their way. This part is what I find irritating about almost all opposition parties. Just before the last election, I was reading an interview with the representative of one of the main prospective political groups. Midway through interview, he said their plan was to take a majority seat in the parliament and form a government of their own. At that point, any hope I had that there will be more than one opposition member in the new parliament vanished completely. 

There I was hoping and there he was dreaming. Of course you don’t ever expect a party official to throw some beat down numbers about their prospects in an election cycle but that went a step or two further. There is this “All or nothing” or “Have to start from scratch” mentality embedded in most opposition parties. Well maybe we don’t have to start from scratch or go for all or nothing. Why can’t we build on what is already there? I am not sure if this is a good analogy but I don’t think the British monarchs stopped being one after they enacted the Magna Carta in 1215. The citizens had to chip away more of their rights from their overlords over time. Now I hope ours don’t take as much given the rush people, especially party representatives, are in these days. But I am sure we will get there. God bless.