If someone was to tell me a while back that Ethiopia was going to build a dam on the river Nile, and the one riparian country other than Egypt opposing the dam would be the Congo Republic and the one country fervently supporting the project would be the Republic of Sudan, I would have a hard time believing that someone. Although the position of the Republic of Congo was unexpected for me, I could see how their stance could be influenced by the Egyptians with some "goodies" here and there. But the reaction of the Sudanese to the contrary regarding the dam was just as unexpected for me, if not worse. And anybody with the slightest understanding of the cultural and historical dynamics between the three countries (Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt) would feel the same way too. Especially regarding the Nile River. Let's not forget that these are the two countries that flushed Ethiopia down the proverbial "toilet" when it came to the Nile treaties of the past.
And although Sudan didn't stand to gain that much from those treaties, it still got more than what Ethiopia got in the deal which was nothing. And as a downstream country just like Egypt, it would have made more sense for the Sudanese to stick to their old alliance. And up until the moment the dam became big news and bluffs started flying on all sides, Sudan towed that line, one that made sense the most for them. But just after the big fanfare settled down, and people started talking, Sudan did a 180 and said it was throwing all its support behind the construction of the GERD dam. The news was just as delightful as it was perplexing.
Look I am just as happy as the next guy that the Sudanese are supporting the GERD dam but why the sudden about-face? One might take their claim at face value and say that they actually thought they will benefit more if the dam was built than if it was not. Or that they did all this out of good virtue. But that is just too easy and predictable.
There was a recent WikiLeaks documents showing the Sudanese agreeing to allow the Egyptians build an airbase. Let me be naive and assume the base is to be used as a launch pad to attack, I don't know but may be, Chad or Niger? Of course not! It is not far-fetched to assume that Sudan did all these things to negotiate from a position of strength in any potential one-on-one engagements with Egypt in the future or with Ethiopia for that matter. Using their support for the dam a leverage against Egypt and a potential Egyptian airbase in Ethiopia's doorsteps as a potential leverage against the latter.
And although Sudan didn't stand to gain that much from those treaties, it still got more than what Ethiopia got in the deal which was nothing. And as a downstream country just like Egypt, it would have made more sense for the Sudanese to stick to their old alliance. And up until the moment the dam became big news and bluffs started flying on all sides, Sudan towed that line, one that made sense the most for them. But just after the big fanfare settled down, and people started talking, Sudan did a 180 and said it was throwing all its support behind the construction of the GERD dam. The news was just as delightful as it was perplexing.
Look I am just as happy as the next guy that the Sudanese are supporting the GERD dam but why the sudden about-face? One might take their claim at face value and say that they actually thought they will benefit more if the dam was built than if it was not. Or that they did all this out of good virtue. But that is just too easy and predictable.
There was a recent WikiLeaks documents showing the Sudanese agreeing to allow the Egyptians build an airbase. Let me be naive and assume the base is to be used as a launch pad to attack, I don't know but may be, Chad or Niger? Of course not! It is not far-fetched to assume that Sudan did all these things to negotiate from a position of strength in any potential one-on-one engagements with Egypt in the future or with Ethiopia for that matter. Using their support for the dam a leverage against Egypt and a potential Egyptian airbase in Ethiopia's doorsteps as a potential leverage against the latter.
